24 Million May Lose Health Insurance to Pay for Tax Cuts for Wealthy Americans

[This commentary, “GOP Cuts Are Moral Challenge for America,” was published on Commonwealth Magazine’s website on March 14.]

THE BIG NEWS IS, of course, Monday’s “score” from the Congressional Budget Office detailing that the House Republican bill to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act/Obamacare will result in 14 million Americans losing health insurance by 2018 and 24 million by 2026.

Before that, something else caught my eye from the Bangor Daily News. It’s a blog post from a woman named Crystal Sands who writes about how the ACA enabled her and her young family to take a chance and find a new life as farmers. Her post, “The ACA makes a simpler farming life possible for our family,” says this:

“I’m a writer, an online professor, a farmer, a wife, and a mom. None of these jobs offer health insurance for me and my family, so our family purchases our health insurance through the Affordable Care Act. We work hard, but we try to work differently. If you read my blog, you know we’re learning to grow and raise our own food, and our health insurance through the ACA makes this possible.

“The ACA has helped me to become a better mom, a better wife, a better teacher because I am not so overworked, and it has made it so I can learn to be a farmer. I’m also just a better person. I’m not sick and overworked. I’m more patient and more kind and more helpful to everyone. And this is my story. There’s so much potential here to make lives better. There are many people, including many farmers, who depend on the ACA. I hope we don’t lose sight of that.

And now, CBO’s Cost Estimate of the American Health Care Act. Bottom line — $894 billion in tax cuts financed by $1.2 trillion in cuts to Medicaid and to subsidies/tax credits for private health insurance. Those cuts will produce an increase in numbers of uninsured Americans of 14 million by 2018, 21 million by 2020, and 24 million by 2026. Of the 24 million, 14 million will lose Medicaid and 10 million will lose private coverage, employer-sponsored and individual. Continue reading “24 Million May Lose Health Insurance to Pay for Tax Cuts for Wealthy Americans”

House Republicans Show Their Hand on ACA — and It’s Not Good

[This February 26 2017 commentary was published on the Commonwealth Magazine website.]

LATE LAST WEEK, Politico released a leaked 105-page draft bill defining the House Republican plan to repeal/replace/repair/re-whatever the Affordable Care Act/Obamacare. The draft legislation was dated February 10, so likely it’s already out of date, though it is the best indication yet of their rapidly evolving intentions and fits with many of their prior recent proposals. So a big GOP move is getting close, and it’s not good. What’s important?

First, the ACA’s generous coverage expansion (for many, not all) through Medicaid expansion and private insurance subsidies would be drastically curtailed, leaving most of the 22 million who got either form of coverage without an affordable option.

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Second, not only is the ACA Medicaid expansion repealed by 2019 (11 million people and counting), the plan would replace current Medicaid financing with a “per capita cap” by 2019, shrinking funding by hundreds of billions, perhaps more, over 10 years. Continue reading “House Republicans Show Their Hand on ACA — and It’s Not Good”

“It has saved my life.” Voices from Ohio on Medicaid Expansion

[This commentary was first published on February 15 on the Commonwealth Magazine website:]

OHIO IS ONE of 31 states that expanded Medicaid as permitted by the Affordable Care Act/Obamacare for nearly all low-income citizens. The state’s Republican governor, former presidential candidate John Kasich, has been among the most vocal proponents of the expansion on the Republican side and has taken a lot of grief for it from ACA opponents.

In early January, the state released an evaluation of the impact of the expansion, “Ohio Medicaid Group VIII Assessment: A Report to the Ohio General Assembly“. (Group VIII is the legal name for the ACA Medicaid expansion population.)

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The report has a host of quotes from interviews with individuals who benefited from the expansion, and I include a selection of these quotes below, along with a section from the report’s overall summary. This is what Medicaid expansion has meant to real Americans:

“It gives me peace of mind knowing that I don’t have to pay for the medical insurance, and it saves me money being able to afford food and utilities and everyday things you need in life.”

“It’s been a blessing and I thank God that I have Medicaid because I no longer have large payments and I can get my Medicaid medicines.”

“More freedom. Less worries. I was an addict for 3 years before getting Medicaid. Because of Medicaid I’m not an addict.” Continue reading ““It has saved my life.” Voices from Ohio on Medicaid Expansion”

Welcome Back to the Medical Underwriting Circle of Hell

[This commentary was posted today (2-15-2017) at RealClearHealth.]

All leading Republicans who are committed to repealing all or key parts of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) also emphasize their commitment to maintaining the law’s most popular part: banning pre-existing condition exclusions and medical underwriting by preserving the ACA’s (also known as Obamacare) policy of “guaranteed issue.” But the fine print in Republican proposals betrays that commitment, including legislation filed on January 26 by House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Greg Walden (R-OR) threatening health security for tens of millions of Americans.

Medical underwriting is the insurance industry practice of issuing and pricing health insurance based on an individual’s current or prior medical condition. Insurers use medical underwriting and pre-existing condition exclusions to avoid covering anyone who might cost them money. The Walden bill, called the “Preexisting Conditions Protection and Continuous Coverage Incentive Act,” pretends to continue the ACA’s ban on medical underwriting, but would, in reality, do the opposite.What are pre-existing conditions that can prevent you from obtaining coverage?

What are pre-existing conditions that can prevent you from obtaining coverage? Here is a list of hundreds that are used to exclude or limit health insurance: acne, cancer, domestic violence, leukemia, pregnancy, sleep apnea, and much more. Continue reading “Welcome Back to the Medical Underwriting Circle of Hell”

Vive la ACA Resistance!

[This commentary was published on the Commonwealth Magazine website last week.  If you are supportive of what the Affordable Care Act has achieved and want to help defend it — the time is NOW.  Please go to: http://protectmycare.org/ to learn how you can help, now. Everyone.  Please.]

A NEW REPUBLICAN-CONTROLLED Congress is in place. And for the sixth time, the Affordable Care Act (ACA) is facing extinction. Indeed, a gripping narrative history of the ACA/Obamacare could be written focused only on its numerous near-death experiences. Maybe the sixth time will be the curse, and maybe not. Let’s recall.

One, in January 2010, the loss of the 60th Democratic vote in the US Senate via the election of Republican Scott Brown to the seat formerly held by Massachusetts Sen. Edward Kennedy was almost universally assumed to be the end of the road for President Obama’s health reform agenda. He signed the ACA into law two months later.vive-la-resistance

Two, in June 2012, by a single vote, the US Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the ACA’s individual mandate and, by extension, the ACA. On the day of the decision, premature news accounts by CNN and Fox News erroneously reported that the court had overturned the law.

Three, in November 2012, thorough ACA repeal would have followed an electoral win by Republican Mitt Romney in that year’s presidential election, well before full implementation in 2014.

Four, between October-December 2013, catastrophic launches of the federal and state Health Exchange websites temporarily made the law a national laughingstock facing stillbirth at its most critical setup moment. The debacle was accompanied by a three-week October shutdown of the federal government in a final Republican spasm to prevent January 1, 2014, implementation.

Five, in June 2015, a second potentially fatal lawsuit that reached the US Supreme Court was laid aside by a 6-3 vote.

Six and lastly, the November 2016 federal elections represented the final life-threatening challenge.  An expected presidential victory by Democrat Hillary Clinton would have sealed the law’s lifespan at least until 2021. Instead, Republican Donald Trump’s victory now is leading many, once again, to predict the law’s effective demise this year.

Except, it ain’t necessarily so.  Here are three reasons why.

First, the Republicans’ ACA playbook is riddled with contradictions and dissent over their “repeal and delay” strategy.  Will delay last two, three, or four years? Once they repeal the law’s financing, how can they pay for even a minimal replacement? Will they do one replacement or a series of replacement bills? How can they keep private insurance companies from abandoning the individual insurance market in soon-to-be demolished health exchanges?  How will they keep preposterous promises that their still-unknown replacement will provide better coverage at lower cost for everyone who has been helped by the ACA? How will they keep Republican governors in line as they seek to slash Medicaid spending by approximately $1 trillion dollars over 10 years? These are just for starters.

For a devastating look at the contradictions in “repeal and delay,” see this week’s Health Affairs blog by conservative analysts Joseph Antos and James Capretta: “The Problems with ‘Repeal and Delay.’” “The most likely end result of ‘repeal and delay,’” they write, “would be less secure insurance for many Americans, procrastination by political leaders who will delay taking any proactive steps as long as possible, and ultimately no discernible movement toward a real marketplace for either insurance or medical services.”

Second, as Americans now focus on Republican non-plans and non-answers, public opinion is turning against them. Recent Kaiser Family Foundation polling shows that even Trump voters – who are far more chronically ill and needy than Clinton backers – support nearly all of the ACA’s essential building blocks except for the individual mandate, and oppose repeal without a replacement plan. As Noam Levey from the Los Angeles Times has shown, not a single nationally recognized patient or health care provider organization supports the Republican repeal agenda. Only the fringes of the Tea Party stand by their sides in this backward quest.

Third, while defenders of Republican drive to end coverage for between 22 to 30 million Americans are few and far between, broad resistance to the first major policy thrust of the Trump era is building.  A broad-based “Protect Your Care” coalition is spearheading national resistance, collaborating with President Obama and congressional Democrats and leading to a day of demonstrations across the nation on January 15. Hospitals, doctor and medical student groups, insurance companies, community health centers, and other health care stakeholders are making clear the damage now threatening the entire US health care system. Meanwhile, former Democratic congressional staffers have developed a blueprint for broad-based resistance to the Trump/Republican agenda, called “Indivisible.”

Republicans may win, though they will rue the day that they set in motion destabilization of the nation’s health care system. Around the globe, universal health coverage is now recognized not just as something governments do to be nice to their people, it is understood as an essential precondition for healthy societies and healthy economies. Over the past eight years, the United States has been moving forward to join the universal consensus of advanced nations, most of whom are far less affluent than the US.

Whether Republicans succeed or fail is not just up to them. It is now up to all Americans. Vive la ACA resistance!

Five Affordable Care Act Questions for the GOP

[This commentary was published today on the website of Commonwealth Magazine.]

SO, REPUBLICANS ARE planning a major blitz to repeal and delay/replace/collapse the Affordable Care Act/ACA/ObamaCare. I’ve got five questions to ask leaders of the Grand Old Party.

First, if your guarantees are honest that your replacement law will be better than the ACA, why not share real numbers?

President-elect Donald Trump, Speaker Paul Ryan, and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell have each promised that their ACA replacement will cover as many Americans as the ACA with higher quality and lower costs. Bully for that!

Here’s the problem. None of the plans you’ve produced, including the 2016 Reconciliation bill, Trump’s platform, Ryan’s Better Way, Health & Human Services Secretary designee Tom Price’s Empowering Patients First plan, or others from Republicans and conservatives, comes close. Except for this year’s reconciliation bill, none has been submitted to the Congressional Budget Office for a score. Reputable analysts peg the drop in insured lives between 20-30 million currently insured.wash-monu

Your message is “trust us.” Would businessman Trump take such a deal?

Second, when you promise to continue “guaranteed issue” of health insurance with no-pre-existing conditions or medical underwriting, why do you always fail to mention the fine print?

Trump, Ryan, and other Republicans’ statements are clear – any reform will maintain “guaranteed issue.” Yet your written plans tell another story – guaranteed issue will be kept only for persons who maintain “continuous coverage” (undefined). This means if you lose your insurance and have a coverage gap beyond the allowed time, you will be newly subject to medical underwriting and pre-existing condition exclusions for an unspecified period (forever?).

How many people might fall into this new medical underwriting Circle of Hell (CoH)? Start with 28-29 million currently uninsured, add the estimated 20-30 million increase because of Republican plans to eliminate income-based premium subsidies. We start at 48-58 million Americans, and the numbers will only grow as more fall into the medical underwriting CoH.

This is detailed in numerous replacement plans, including Ryan’s. Yet you never mention this life-important detail when talking with media who buy your line that you will continue the ACA’s elimination of pre-existing conditions for everyone. Untrue.

Third, what will you do about enormous losses for those dealing with substance abuse and mental health needs under your plans?

Most Americans don’t realize that the ACA is the biggest law ever in covering Americans for substance abuse and mental health services (aka: behavioral health). It’s true. ACA guaranteed issue means no one can be denied insurance because they had or have substance abuse/mental health problems. Bans on lifetime and annual benefit limits allows countless persons with expensive substance abuse or mental health disorders to keep covered.  Requiring insurers to cover 10 “essential health benefits” insures that nearly all Americans have behavioral health coverage (#5) PLUS prescription drugs (#6) to treat their disorders.

All Republican plans – Trump, Ryan, Price etc. – propose eliminating “essential health benefits.” They propose eroding guaranteed issue (see above) and canceling elimination of annual benefit limits. So, the ACA’s enormous advances for  mental health and substance abuse would become major losses under Republicans’ plans. I’m not sure you get this at all.  I am certain most Americans have zero idea of this and they will strongly object when they find out.

Fourth, why are you so mean to the nation’s hospitals? 

In crafting the ACA, America’s hospitals committed a mortal sin in Republicans’ eyes by making a deal with President Barack Obama and the US Senate. In exchange for Democrats’ commitment to get as close to universal coverage as politically possible, hospitals agreed to $155 billion in federal payment reductions between 2010-19 (now about $350 billion between 2016-2025). They did this to stop being the default caretakers of America’s uninsured.

Now Republicans plan to repeal the ACA’s new taxes on wealthy Americans, on drug, medical device, and health insurance companies, even on indoor tanning salons! And, they plan to leave in place the $350 billion in payment cuts to hospitals even as their policies will send as many as 30 million recently insured Americans back into the ranks of the uninsured and back to America’s emergency departments.

The American Hospital Association and the Federation of American Hospitals, who brokered the 2009 deal, wrote a letter on December 7 to Republicans: “…any repeal legislation … must include repeal of the reductions in payments for hospital services embedded in the ACA.” Sounds reasonable to me, but maybe not to others because if Congress sends the money back, it will raise Medicare’s costs for the next decade and beyond, resulting in premium increases for Medicare enrollees across the nation, and shortening the lifespan of the Medicare Hospital Trust Fund (now solvent through 2028) by years. Sad!  (Read this excellent Kaiser Health Policy Brief for more details on the impact of ACA repeal on Medicare.)

Fifth, why don’t you just fix the ACA exchanges instead of killing them?

A parable: Last summer, Alaska realized that premiums in its health exchange and individual health insurance market would be rising in 2017 by over 40 percent. In response, the Republican legislature established a state reinsurance pool to protect insurers against high losses; after passing the law, insurance companies dropped their premium increases to about 7 percent.

Some health insurance exchanges (i.e., California, New York, Massachusetts) are working well, and some are having high rate increase problems. These problems are fixable with sufficient political will to address them.  The problem is that Republican lawmakers don’t want fixes – they want repeal. In 2014, 2015, and 2016, exchange premium increases were below projections. In 2017, they have risen at high rates in most states because of the end of rate protections known as “risk corridors” and “reinsurance” as well as the underfunding of “risk adjustment” in the ACA. All of these “3Rs” are permanent features of the Medicare Part D prescription drug program that Republicans support there and despise in the ACA.

These exchange problems are fixable. Yet you refuse to support them and fix the problems because that would undermine your case for ACA repeal.

These are my top five questions right now. Any answers, my friends?

The Future of Public Health under President Trump

[The Q&A below was published in Harvard media this past week.]

How might the election of Donald Trump as the next U.S. president impact public health over the next four years? John McDonough, professor of the practice of public health at Harvard Chan School, who worked in the Senate on the passage of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), offers his perspective in this Q&A.

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John McDonough

Many are worried that Obamacare will be in deep trouble—and likely be repealed—once Donald Trump is in the White House, working with Republican majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. A week after the election, Trump appears to be hedging on his prior pledge to completely do away with the health reform law. What do you think will happen to the ACA—and to the millions of people who gained health insurance because of it?

The likelihood for total 100% repeal of the ACA is unlikely for two reasons: One is that this would have to be accomplished through regular legislative order in the U.S. Senate and Republicans would not be able to attract the necessary eight votes needed from Democratic senators to do this. Of course, if Republicans choose to abolish the filibuster, that would change. A second reason that repeal is unlikely is that many Republicans appreciate many non-controversial provisions in the ACA and repealing them would be backward steps they would not want to make happen.

Instead, and for now at least, Republicans appear to be moving toward a two-track process of “repeal and replace.” Repeal of the ACA’s essential health insurance coverage provisions, as well as the new taxes that financed the ACA’s expansions, could be achieved through the special “budget reconciliation process,” which only requires 51 votes for passage and cannot be filibustered. This would take some months to achieve, and is doable as long as 50 of the 52 Republican senators are willing to vote to eliminate coverage for as many as 22 million Americans—the number newly insured under the ACA—and their willingness to do that is not yet certain. Republicans did vote to repeal the most important parts of Obamacare in January of this year, but they did it knowing that President Obama would veto the measure. It would be a different vote knowing that President Trump would sign it.

Replacing the ACA with some other sort of health care law would be far more difficult because that legislation would need to proceed through regular legislative order and could and would be filibustered by Democrats, thus blocking the legislation. So it is conceivable that repeal could happen and replace might not follow, which would leave the up-to-22 million most at risk in a most difficult situation.

It’s been reported in the media that President-elect Trump may consider keeping some of the ACA’s more popular provisions, such as the requirement that insurance companies not deny coverage to people with pre-existing medical conditions, or that children up to age 26 can be covered under a family’s health plan. How do you think this might play out?

House Speaker Paul Ryan and House Republican leaders, in their “Better Way” document on repeal and replace last summer, indicated that they would continue the ACA’s “guaranteed issue” provisions—those making it illegal for insurers to deny anyone coverage because of health status, age, gender, or other factors—though only for those who are able to maintain “continuous coverage” with no or only short-term coverage breaks. For the millions of Americans who find themselves unable to afford coverage for some period of time, Republicans would, by their own words, return pre-existing condition exclusions and medical underwriting—charging the sick higher prices than the healthy. The provision for children up to age 26 being able to stay on parent’s health insurance policies is most likely not to be repealed.

How might the new president’s policies impact women’s health? He has said he would nominate a conservative Supreme Court justice who would be in favor of a pro-life agenda. Could this lead to Roe v. Wade being overturned? What other ways might women’s health be impacted under the Trump administration?

Even with a Trump appointment to the U.S. Supreme Court, there are five current votes, including Justice Anthony Kennedy, opposed to a Roe v. Wade repeal. So President Trump would need at least one additional replacement of those five to have a chance at repeal.

Other aspects of women’s health coverage are at risk because of Republican plans to repeal large portions of the ACA. Republicans want to return all discretion over required benefits to states, including the ACA’s mandates on benefits such as birth control, mammography, prescription drugs, behavioral health, and much more. So it’s possible that women could lose coverage for services that are currently free, such as contraception, mammograms, folic acid supplements during pregnancy, and screenings for gestational diabetes, sexually transmitted diseases, and cervical cancer.

Trump broke with conservative orthodoxy when he said that he’s in favor of Medicare being able to negotiate drug prices. He also has said that he would take on the Big Pharma lobby in order to reduce high prescription drug costs. Do you think he’ll be able to follow through on these pledges?

President Trump’s administration would only be able to negotiate drug prices or make other significant changes in pharmaceutical policies with the consent of Congress, which is most unlikely to provide that authority to him.  Also, though the health policy section on his campaign website included drug-related proposals, the health policy section on his presidential transition website includes no mentions of these.

There were a number of health-related ballot initiatives across the nation. Three states, including Massachusetts, voted to legalize recreational marijuana and another three voted in favor of medicinal pot; voters in California, Washington, and Nevada approved various gun control measures; Californians raised cigarette taxes; and four cities voted to tax sugar-sweetened beverages. Also, Colorado rejected the establishment of a single-payer health insurance system in that state. How are these ballot initiatives changing the public health landscape?

On recreational marijuana, the tide of public opinion is changing the national landscape in spite of bipartisan opposition to this liberalization from elected officials all over the nation. It feels somewhat like the fast-changing tide a few years ago on gay marriage. And it feels unstoppable.

Taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages, at least on the local level, seem to be approaching the level of public acceptance we have seen in prior years with relation to tobacco taxes. The public seems supportive, at least in cities, especially when the revenues raised are clearly defined in terms of spending targets, such as public education. We have yet to see this approach pushed at a state initiative level, which would be a much more challenging proposition.

Regarding the vote against single-payer health insurance in Colorado, it seems that the U.S. sees one of these single-payer ballot initiatives every decade or so, and in each case, they start with some robust public support and then lose in a landslide: California in 1994, 73% to 27% no; Oregon in 2002, 77% to 23% no, and now Colorado in 2016, 80% to 20% no. It has always been a difficult sell and the Colorado results demonstrate that it still is.

Karen Feldscher

Explaining our Health Care Dilemma to the World

I co-wrote the article below for the British Medical Journal with John Park, a Kennedy Scholar at the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health:

America’s HealthCare Dilemma

The insurance of at least 22 million Americans hangs in the balance

The election of Donald Trump as 45th president of the United States has triggered concerns in many globally important areas of public policy, including climate change. But for Americans, one of the most unsettling challenges is the future of domestic healthcare policy and the fate of the 2010 health reform law, the Affordable Care Act (ACA).

For 45 years, the US healthcare system has been accurately characterized as the most expensive among nations in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), as mediocre regarding quality and effectiveness, as inadequate in that it left nearly 50 million Americans uninsured, and as substandard in core outcomes such as infant mortality and life expectancy. In short, the only category at which Americans seemed to excel was in spending the most money.1

Between 2005 and 2008, many sectors in American society became vocal in calling for comprehensive healthcare reform to address failings in access, quality, cost, and outcomes. Between January 2009 and March 2010, new President Barack Obama worked with hefty Democratic majorities in the US Senate and House of Representatives to fashion comprehensive reform to tackle these deficiencies, signing the ACA on 23 March 2010. Though some Republican members of Congress initially expressed support for reform, objections to the Democratic approach and political resistance from their grassroots left zero Republican supporters by the time that the ACA was signed. Continue reading “Explaining our Health Care Dilemma to the World”

Pre-Election Reflections on Health Reform in the 2016 Campaign

[This post appeared in the Health Affairs blog on November 7 2016.  Happy election day, everyone!]

We are nearing the grand finale of our long and disheartening election opera, one we dare not ignore because the outcomes matter so much. While the election results will not be determined by public reactions to the Affordable Care Act, the ACA’s fate will be mightily determined by Tuesday’s outcomes. What have we learned about our collective health future over the past 18 months and what might this mean for our health system’s future?

Public opinion on health reform is as frozen today as it was in spring, 2015

Kaiser monthly tracking polls show reliably unfavorable attitudes toward the ACA, slightly beating favorables, and stuck since 2014 in 40 percent purgatory. The advantages millions of Americans feel from ACA insurance coverage expansions and other access reforms are balanced by those who now blame the ACA for everything bad that happens in health care. The misnamed Pottery Barn rule—“if you break it, you own it”—applies here even though the dish was broken well before the ACA. Beyond this, if there is one thing on which both sides of the new Republican divide concur, it is a deep hostility towards ObamaCare. The election cycle seems to have only hardened these views.

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The essential differences between Democrats and Republicans are now more clear

We know more about the preferences of both parties with respect to the ACA than we did 18 months ago. Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, and House Speaker Paul Ryan, have released health reform planks that clarify their intentions — regardless of Congressional feasibility.

Clinton wants to maintain and strengthen the ACA by improving premium affordability and by addressing excessive cost sharing in the Exchanges and beyond. She has an eight-point plan to address pharmaceutical prices. She will emphasize women’s health, and much more. Her campaign has articulated the first full agenda of any leading Democrat to improve and advance the ACA, helping to define the arena of possibility, whether far-fetched or not.

After early teasing about his admiration for the Canadian and Scottish single-payer systems, Trump embraced standard Republican orthodoxy on ObamaCare, most recently announcing his intention to call a special Congressional session as soon as possible to repeal the law. Two independent research institutes (Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget and the Commonwealth Fund) have concluded that Trump’s agenda, if implemented, would result in 20 million Americans losing health insurance and would increase the federal deficit by $330-550 billion over 10 years.

Meanwhile, Speaker Ryan announced in September his intention—if Republicans control both houses of Congress and the White House in January—to expedite budget reconciliation legislation that would repeal as much of ObamaCare as possible. Though Ryan’s plan is more ambitious than Trump’s, of the latter’s seven health policy planks, five also show up on the Speaker’s agenda.

The final week’s fireworks over premium increases in the individual health insurance market only emphasize that the political volatility of the ACA/ObamaCare has not diminished at all.

Differences involving the ACA are not about facts or data, but about fundamental values

One of my favorite political scientists, Deborah Stone, in her book Policy Paradox, writes that much of the policy process involves debates about values masquerading as debates about data and facts. That sure describes the past eight years of health reform. As my colleague Robert Blendon showed in his pre-election special report for The New England Journal of Medicine:

The political parties fundamentally differ over the role the federal government should play in intervening in the U.S. health care system, (and) the desirability of the federal government moving ahead with future efforts aimed at universal coverage…

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Source: POLITICO, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health Poll. Voters and health care in the 2016 election. September 14–21, 2016.

The notion that these differences might be leavened, for example, by changing the age-rating bands (the maximum amount an insurer can charge in premiums for young people versus older enrollees) in the Exchanges from three-to-one up to six-to-one, is delusional. Six and a half years after its signing, the ACA has yet to become settled policy because the differences are simply too deep and neither side of the political divide can risk the backlash of surrender.

Republicans don’t want to fix the ACA car at any cost; they are determined to smash it

The excessively high premium increases in 2017 in the ACA Exchanges, more than anything, are tied to elimination in 2017 of risk corridors and reinsurance, as well as the undermining of risk adjustment. This past summer, Alaska’s Republican Legislature established its own reinsurance mechanism to stabilize rates, and immediately saw premium increases drop from over 40 percent to under 10 percent.

In my time as a member of the Massachusetts House of Representatives (1985-1997), I learned that when political partners like and respect each other, the most difficult challenges could be met with seeming ease; and conversely, when parties disliked and disrespected each other, the easiest chores were impossible to achieve. And thus it is with the ACA Exchanges, eminently fixable technically, and utterly unfixable politically.

And ACA demolition is advanced with no clearly defined replacement alternative. Yes, Speaker Ryan advanced a health reform agenda this past summer; yet he and his team did not put their ideas into legislative language that could be scored by the Congressional Budget Office, perhaps because they knew that the results on both lost insurance coverage and rising costs would turn the public against them.

“The future, like everything else, is no longer quite what it used to be.” (Paul Valery, 1937, not Yogi Berra).

As I write this on November 3rd, the most likely outcome from November 8 is divided government, with a Senate majority hanging by a thread. (Please recall that Senator Al Franken (D-MN) took his U.S. Senate seat for the first time in July 2009 after an eight-month recount process.) Republicans know that the electoral map in 2018, all things being equal, will offer substantial gains in both the Senate and the House, particularly if their political base is pleased. Democrats know that they will need to deliver on at least some of their promises, and not allow the signal accomplishment of the Obama Administration to fall apart.

Dare I say it: we’re going to need some statesmanship at a time when that commodity is in short supply.

How Might Democrats Try to Expand and Improve the ACA in 2017?

[Below is a new commentary just released by the Milbank Quarterly on their website — to be published in their fall edition.]

In 2017, if Democrats hold the White House and recapture a majority in the US Senate (control of the US House is considered unachievable), how might they try to change the Affordable Care Act (ACA)?

Despite congressional gridlock, changes to the ACA have happened. Six years since its enactment, the ACA has been altered 24 times by Congress and the president, mostly in response to Republican demands that generated some support from Democratic lawmakers as in the 2013 wholesale repeal of the ACA’s Title VIII, a new disability cash assistance program known as Community Living Assistance Services and Supports (CLASS—RIP).1

While Democrats and progressive groups have wish lists for ACA improvements, they have kept these low-key, prioritizing instead the need to repel repeated existential threats to the law, such as the 2 anti-ACA lawsuits that reached the US Supreme Court in 2012 and 2015 (National Federation of Independent Business v Sebelius and King v Burwell, respectively). Continue reading “How Might Democrats Try to Expand and Improve the ACA in 2017?”