CBO Says ACA Repeal Will Increase Uninsured and Federal Deficits (by a lot)

My favored definition of “health policy wonk” is someone who reads health reports from the Congressional Budget Office AND enjoys it.  Guilty as charged.  Last Friday’s new report, “Budgetary and Economic Effects of Repealing the Affordable Care Act,” was enlightening and fascinating.  It will be a benchmark document during the coming two years of debates over the ACA’s future — and required reading for my students this fall.  Lucky them!

This report is already a fountain of numbers thrown around by both parties — and it reflects the changing politics at CBO under Republican control of the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate.  What are the key numbers?

  • Repeal on 1/1/2016 would increase the federal deficit by $353 billion between 2016-2025, or by $137B using the CBO’s new “voodoo” macroeconomic analysis;
  • Repeal would cause “federal budget deficits to increase by growing amounts after 2025, whether or not the budgetary effects of macroeconomic feedback are included.”
  • Repeal would increase the number of uninsured Americans by 19 million in 2016 and by 24 million in 2020;
  • Repeal would increase the US gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.7% between 2021-25, with “substantial uncertainty” regarding this estimate in both directions.cbo 2015 2

So there you have it.  Repealing the ACA, the premiere policy goal of just about every Republican House and Senate member, will dramatically increase both federal deficits and the numbers of uninsured Americans in a report signed, sealed, and delivered to Capitol Hill by Republicans’ newly appointed CBO Director Keith Hall. Hall replaced the prior highly respected CBO Director Doug Elmendorf (who was just announced as the new Dean of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard beginning next January). Continue reading “CBO Says ACA Repeal Will Increase Uninsured and Federal Deficits (by a lot)”